When we'll actually start the third popsicle stick line — still doing the maths

We've been talking about adding a third popsicle stick line since around Chinese New Year, and we still haven't decided. Writing this out partly so I can think it through myself.

Last year our two lines were running flat-out most months, especially from April to August when the frozen-treat orders pile up. The workers were doing nights til 11 or 12 most evenings. Our two long-term buyers in Germany and the Netherlands have been asking if we can take 30% more volume. In theory yes, adding a line gets us there. But.

First problem is space. The plot of land on the west side of the yard is where we stock raw birch right now. If we actually put a line in, we have to move the raw stock to the old warehouse on the other end. That warehouse roof leaks a little in summer — last July we lost a couple tons of birch billets to rainwater. Fixing the roof means stopping work on that side for about a week, and stopping anything for a week here isnt easy because the saws need to keep running.

Second problem is the machines. We use the wood-shaping machines that come from Linyi (about 4 hours away). Normal lead time after deposit is around 90 days. I rang them this week — they said the back half of this year is fully booked and they can't even start cutting our order until November. So if I sign today, machine arrives end of February at the earliest, then two weeks to install and calibrate. Means we miss the front half of the 2026 peak season anyway.

Third one is people. A line needs at least 4 steady workers plus one QC. Training a new hand to actually be useful takes three months. The older guys don't really want to train, and the younger ones don't really want to come into a workshop floor. I've talked about this with David (Chen Wei, our export manager) and the boss a few times, no conclusion yet.

So where we landed for now — we probably won't put in a whole new line in one go. Instead we're looking at adding machines at the bottleneck stages on the existing two lines. The sawing stage has been slow for a while. Two new saws would probably push output up by 15 to 20%. Way less money, and we can see the effect in a month. David thinks this is too conservative. I told him let's be conservative this year, the macro is hard to read.

Will write something when we actually move on this.